Preparations recommended on the Gulf Coast. Possible storm

AccuWeather: “Everyone along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region needs to be prepared for the impacts of a hurricane”

(This story will be updated to add new information.)

A system in the Caribbean is showing early signs of forming and meteorologists are warning of impending problems for residents of the Gulf of Mexico, according to the latest warning from the National Hurricane Center.

According to the National Hurricane Center, a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next one to two days as the storm moves into the Gulf, where further strengthening is possible.

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“Everyone along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region needs to be prepared for the impacts of a hurricane,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather's senior hurricane expert, adding that the system has the potential to be the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. so far this season.

“AccuWeather meteorologists expect this storm to have a major impact,” said Jon Porter, AccuWeather's chief meteorologist. “This could be the storm that will be remembered for the 2024 hurricane season.”

The next named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Helene.

Invest 97L: What you need to know

Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in conjunction with an extensive low pressure system over the northwestern Caribbean.

The environmental conditions seem to be favorable for the further development of this system.

A tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next day or two as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where further development is expected.

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Regardless of further developments, this system is expected to cause heavy rainfall across much of Central America over the next few days.

Stakeholders in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the development of this system, as watches or warnings are likely to be required for portions of these areas later this morning.

The system is expected to move primarily northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this week. Stakeholders along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also closely monitor the development of this system.

Probability of occurrence within 48 hours: high, 80 percent.
Probability of occurrence within 7 days: high, 90 percent.

Will a hurricane hit Florida?

“People along the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend region and much of the eastern Gulf Coast need to complete their preparations for the hurricane's impacts by Wednesday evening before dangerous conditions arrive Thursday,” AccuWeather said.

According to AccuWeather, there are two possible scenarios for the storm currently brewing:

A stretch further inland through the southeastern states.
A storm moving eastward along the Atlantic coast in the southeast.

“Residents along the entire Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Key West, Florida, including the Tampa Bay metropolitan area, should closely monitor the path of the potential storm,” AccuWeather said.

“This developing tropical threat is currently forecast to impact similar areas that were severely impacted by Hurricane Idalia in August 2023.”

What tropical impacts are possible from Invest 97L in Florida this week?

wind. AccuWeather forecasts that Invest 97L could become a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall later this week, and that it could strengthen into a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of at least 111 mph (178 km/h). Strong wind gusts of 100-118 mph (160-190 km/h) are expected where the storm makes landfall on Thursday. The AccuWeather Local StormMax is 140 mph (225 km/h).

Rain. AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting widespread rainfall of 4 to 8 inches throughout the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region through Saturday, with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches possible near the landfall zone. The AccuWeather Local StormMax is 24 inches of rain.

➤ Forecast of excessive precipitation

storm surge. “The Tampa Bay region is extremely vulnerable to storm surge. If this storm continues to move west, we could see severe storm surge and flooding in Tampa,” DaSilva said.

Tornadoes. “There is also a risk of spin-up tornadoes across much of the Florida peninsula and parts of the Panhandle, as well as southern Georgia and southeastern Alabama on Thursday.”

Power outages. “There is also a risk of widespread power outages where this storm makes landfall and in the Tallahassee area,” AccuWeather said. “Regional and local power outages are expected throughout the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region, as well as much of Georgia, Alabama, southern Tennessee, and parts of far western South Carolina and North Carolina.”

Prepare now.

“Now is the time to prepare for a hurricane making landfall on the Gulf Coast. Don't wait until this storm is officially named,” Porter said.

“This could quickly develop into a strong hurricane. Don't let your friends and family on the Gulf Coast get caught off guard. Call or text them and tell them to prepare for a hurricane.

“There is a possibility that this storm will further intensify into a major hurricane, classified as a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 to 129 miles per hour.”

“This could be the storm that the 2024 hurricane season will be remembered for,” Porter said.

Warnings and alerts throughout Florida

It is too early to make any observations or warnings about the developing system, but experts advise residents to keep a close eye on Invest 97L and start preparing now.

Spaghetti models for Invest 97L

Special note on spaghetti models: The figures show a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are the same. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five best performing models for its forecasts.

➤ Spaghetti models for Invest 97L

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Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center: What You Need to Know About Invest 97L

Later this week, the system is expected to move predominantly northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Residents of the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the development of this system.
A tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next few days.
As the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, further development is possible.

Watch for the Hurricane Center’s new “worry cone”

NHC introduces new warning cone: What you should know

The National Hurricane Center introduced a new, experimental warning cone in August. Here's what's changed.

The National Hurricane Center released its new “cone of concern” for Hurricane Ernesto on August 14.

Ernesto stayed far away from Florida and the United States, so residents didn't notice much difference between the original cone and the new one. One of the biggest differences between the two is that the new cone shows wind warnings for inland counties, not just those on the coast.

Both cones will be visible on the Hurricane Center's website. The new cone can be found by going to the storm's graphics page and then clicking on “New Experimental Cone,” which will be highlighted in red.

Differences you will see:

Observations and warnings for inland counties, not just coastal areas.
White transparent shading for the entire five-day forecast, instead of white dots for the four- and five-day forecast.

Interactive map: Which tropical storms and hurricanes have hit your region in the past?

What do the NHC advisories and warnings mean?

What is a storm surge? Graphics explain the deadly weather event

Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is usually issued 36 hours before the first expected occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed quickly.

Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are possible within the warning area. A warning is usually issued 48 hours before the first expected occurrence of tropical storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical Storm Warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere in the warning area within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Warning: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible in the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.

Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means that there is a risk of life-threatening flooding in the indicated locations as rising water advances inland from the coast. This is a life-threatening situation. People in these areas should take all necessary measures to protect life and property from rising water and other potential hazards. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means that there is a possibility of life-threatening flooding in the specified areas within the next 48 hours due to rising water moving inland from the coast.