When will Hurricane Milton hit Jacksonville? How bad will it be?

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Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall in Florida near Tampa Bay on Wednesday, bringing a potentially deadly storm surge of up to 12 feet above ground level at high tide and maximum sustained winds of 160 miles per hour or more.

On Florida's east coast, here are some basics on what residents of the Jacksonville area can expect from Hurricane Milton.

When will Jacksonville feel Hurricane Milton?

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville said it expects weather conditions to worsen Tuesday evening, with significant impacts from the storm between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday as Milton moves from the Gulf of Mexico across the state into the Atlantic Ocean. These impacts may include flooding, storm surges, damaging winds, and flooded streams and rivers.

When will Hurricane Milton be worst in Jacksonville?

As of Tuesday afternoon, the storm was expected to cross Florida between Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The storm's outer rain bands could reach the Jacksonville area Wednesday morning, the weather service said.

The weather service said there could be a “damaging wind risk” and storm surge flooding on both Wednesday and Thursday, and there could also be “persistent” flooding on the St. Johns River. Rain that falls farther south will run off into rivers that flow into the St. Johns before flowing through Jacksonville to the ocean. So when the storm surge passes, there may still be water backed up in the river trying to get out.

Jacksonville streets remain flooded following Hurricane Ian

Deep water flooded San Marco's Palm Avenue, a block from the St. Johns River, and LaSalle Street, a day after Ian drove through Jacksonville.

Dan Scanlan, Florida Times-Union

How much rain should Jacksonville expect from Hurricane Milton?

Totals could range from 5 to 12 inches, with the larger accumulations in St. Johns County, Putnam and Flagler counties. In southeast Georgia, inland rain totals could reach as little as 2 to 4 inches, the weather service said.

How strong are Hurricane Milton's winds in Jacksonville?

On Tuesday morning, a weather forecast from the weather service said coastal areas of Duval County could expect peak winds of just 20 to 30 mph and gusts of up to 45 mph. However, the area is under a tropical storm warning, which by definition means sustained winds of 39-73 mph are expected within 36 hours.

What will Hurricane Milton look like in St. Johns County?

The weather service said Tuesday that hurricanes were possible Wednesday night, with parts of the storm producing a lot of rain. County officials have ordered people living near the water to evacuate by Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected Thursday, with a 70% chance of rain improving from 90% Wednesday evening. The chance of rain drops to 30% by early Friday morning, with winds continuing into the new day.

When will the storm be over?

Milton is expected to move out of the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday, probably before noon, and will be well north of the Bahamas by evening, allowing Florida residents to pick up debris and begin rebuilding.