Tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico has a 50% chance of forming

The latest report from the National Hurricane Center shows that the likelihood of a tropical storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico has now increased.

While a low pressure area is expected to develop over the next day or two, Hurricane Kirk is strengthening in the Atlantic into a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of nearly 140 miles per hour.

Hurricane activity has increased again after a brief lull in August. Since Helene's landfall, three named storms have formed, leaving at least 128 people dead and hundreds still missing.

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Here's what we know about possible tropical disturbances.

NHC tracks tropical system in Gulf of Mexico with 50% chance of formation

According to the NHC's PM Weather Alert, this system is expected to develop into a widespread low pressure area over the southwest or south-central Gulf of Mexico over the next day or two, and further subsequent development is possible as the low slowly moves eastward or northeast. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form early to mid-next week if the low remains separated from a frontal boundary that is expected to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Chance of emergence over 48 hours: Low, close to 0%.
Chance of emergence over 7 days: Medium, 50%.

Is a hurricane coming to Texas?

Regardless of tropical or subtropical developments in the Gulf of Mexico, locally heavy rainfall could occur over parts of Mexico over the next few days and over parts of the Florida Peninsula through the end of the weekend and into next week, the NHC said in its statement.

While Hurricane Kirk is expected to remain over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, impacts could be felt as far away as the East Coast of the United States by Sunday.

Hurricane Tracker: NHC is tracking Hurricane Kirk, Tropical Storm Leslie and another disturbance

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— USA TODAY Network reporters Lexi Simmerman and Cheryl McCloud contributed to this report.