5 Questions Big Cat Country: Is Trevor Lawrence the Next Carson Wentz?

In Week 5 of 2024, our Indianapolis Colts will face the Jacksonville Jaguars. Knowing the party was about to get started, I sat down with Gus Logue of Big Cat Country, SB Nation's Jaguars blog. You can find him on Twitter @gus_logue. We exchanged questions and answers about the Jaguars and the Colts and what follows is what I learned about this week's foe.

You can find my answers to his questions here.

Chris Shepherd: Given where we are right now, I have to ask this question. Doug Pederson is in the hot seat, how hot is his seat? Do you think Pederson will be fired if the Colts do the impossible and win at Duval this weekend? And if so, who is the interim player and who takes over the plays?

Gus Lodge: Several times this offseason, team owner Shad Khan publicly said the 2024 Jaguars were the best team in the franchise's 25-year history. Narrow defeats and strong opponents be damned – a 0-4 start was never acceptable. Pederson's seat is definitely hot. The first loss to the division rival Colts in Jacksonville since 2014 should be enough for Khan to make up his mind, although I wouldn't be surprised if the owners waited until the team returned from London or gave their bye before making the call Pull the trigger.

I think the Jaguars have even more fighting spirit in them than most people (understandably) realize. But if Pederson can't turn the ship around, quarterbacks coach Mike McCoy is a good choice as interim head coach and player-caller. It's hard to imagine Pederson leaving and offensive coordinator Press Taylor staying, and McCoy certainly has the most experience of anyone on the team.

Chris: Many Colts fans loved Brian Thomas Jr. during the build-up to 2024 NFL Draft. What has Thomas looked like as a rookie so far, where has he excelled, what can he improve on and would you be interested in trading him for Ad Mitchell?

Gus: Thomas Jr. is the most improved player on the team, and at this rate he could be one of the best players on the team by Christmas. The 21-year-old wasn't bad in rookie minicamp and early OTAs, but as he's become more confident, his skills have improved. It started with a fumble on the sideline in the first preseason game, then Thomas Jr. torched the Bucs' secondary at practice together – flashback to today, and the 23rd overall pick ranks in the top 15 yards per reception among everyone and first downs per route run pass catcher. This child is different. He can still improve his rapport with Trevor Lawrence and catching through contact, but Thomas Jr. has solid hands, a smooth stride, a buddy-like competitive spirit and, of course, unparalleled long-range speed.

Unfortunately for Colts fans, a breakout game is coming sooner or later. You can keep AD Mitchell.

Chris: I've seen a lot of Trevor Lawrence in the past, but I haven't watched any Jaguars tape this year. Based on my previous work, he's a good quarterback. So what's going on now? Why does he only complete 53% of his passes? Did he work out with Carson Wentz this offseason or something?

Gus: Lawrence's terrible completion percentage can be explained in part by his average throwing depth (10.6 yards, third-most in the NFL). The Jaguars are more aggressive on the field this year as Thomas Jr.'s speed, especially paired with Lawrence's arm strength, can stretch the field a lot. Jacksonville actually had a successful deep passing game this year; The problem is that you rely on it too much. Mid-range shots don't fall and layups are rarely required by coaches. Taylor even said during his availability Thursday that the coaching staff didn't believe it was necessary to get Lawrence into a rhythm with “layups” and that their confidence in him hadn't wavered. But as last week's two passed deep balls to Thomas Jr. and Christian Kirk showed, Lawrence is indeed out of rhythm and needs to find a way to regain his confidence. The problem is that most of Lawrence's distrust seems to be attributable to the system and/or the players around him, which is why he applies pressure. Either way, Jacksonville is doing it like Lawrence. He has to find a way to get into the zone.

The Wentz disorder got me because Lawrence, like Wentz in Philadelphia, developed some bad habits. I created an 8 minute film breakdown on Twitter/X that is available Here for everyone interested.

Chris: If you were an offensive coordinator tasked with creating a game plan to beat this Jacksonville defense, what would that plan look like? What matchups would you target? Are there any players you would avoid?

Gus: I would target Jacksonville's linebacker unit (which is missing Foye Oluokun and possibly Devin Lloyd in this game) and the safety room (where Andre Cisco and Antonio Johnson have had disappointing performances). While the cornerback group is without Tyson Campbell, Ronald Darby and Montaric Brown have performed as well as one could imagine on the outside. Try to stop Nico Collins.

Pass early downs over the middle – early downs especially because Jacksonville's run defense isn't worth testing. They rank in the top five in yards per carry and completion percentage allowed this season and are getting better every week. However, given that Josh Hines-Allen is in the concussion protocol, it may be worth trying out weakside runs this week.

Chris: The Colts are 2.5 point underdogs heading into a winless Jaguars team. Is this line fair, how do you think the game will go and what will the final result be?

Gus: I'm a little surprised the line isn't closer to a pick 'em (in Indy's favor). Even though the Jaguars are significantly better than their record and the Colts haven't won in Jax since 2014, it's funny to see a winless team being favored. However, I suspect the Colts' injuries are a major factor, so it seems like a fair enough line.

It wouldn't shock me if the Colts won and Jaguars fans responded by changing their Twitter/X profile pictures to Pederson with a clown nose. However! Jacksonville's squad is just too good to give up and accept defeat after defeat. I see the Jaguars winning with the run on offense and against the run on defense. Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby are having big days on the ground as Trey Sermon fails to get Anthony Richardson/Joe Flacco into advantageous third-down looks. Jaguars 27, Colts 17.

I can't thank Gus enough for answering this week's questions. Be sure to visit Big Cat Country and @gus_logue on Twitter to check out his work.

I hope he's wrong about the outcome of this case, but this is the Jacksonville Curse we're talking about, so he probably won't.

As always, Colts go.

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